Kenya’s exports to China rebounded by nearly 60 percent in the first three months of duty-free trade, driven by coffee and copper scrap shipments following the March preferential tariff deal.
Export earnings rose to Sh7.05 billion in the April-June 2026 period, from Sh4.41 billion in the corresponding period last year, marking the first quarterly performance under the zero-tariff arrangement.
The recovery signals an improvement in Kenya’s export fortunes in a market where traditional foreign exchange earners, including titanium ores and macadamia nuts, have lost ground amid resource depletion and regulatory restrictions.
However, earnings in the second quarter were 17.2 percent below the Sh8.51 billion recorded in April-June 2024, highlighting the challenge of rebuilding Kenya’s export presence despite improved access to China’s vast consumer market.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) attributed the recovery partly to increased shipments of copper waste and scrap and coffee, pointing to an emerging shift in the country’s export basket.
“There were increased domestic exports of coffee and copper waste and scrap to China,” KNBS wrote in its second-quarter 2026 Balance of Payments report.
Earnings from copper waste and scrap exports to China increased from Sh303.46 million in 2022 to Sh1.18 billion in 2023 before reaching Sh3.24 billion in 2024, according to KNBS commodity data.
The commodity subsequently emerged as Kenya’s leading export to China in April-June 2025, when shipments were valued at Sh1.68 billion, ahead of unroasted coffee at Sh685.44 million and black tea at Sh484.39 million.
Its growing importance comes at a time when Kenya’s titanium exports have lost a major source of supply following the exhaustion of mineral deposits in Kwale.
Titanium ores mined in Kwale since 2013 were exhausted in 2024, with the last consignment shipped in early 2025, marking the end of a key foreign exchange earner within the extractives sector.
In 2022, titanium ores and concentrates generated Sh12.06 billion in exports to China, making the mineral one of Kenya’s most valuable commodities in the market.
However, earnings from the mineral fell to Sh9.9 billion in 2023 and plunged further to Sh4.25 billion in 2024, reflecting the depletion of the Kwale deposits.
Kenya’s macadamia exports have also faced regulatory constraints after the Agriculture and Food Authority imposed a harvesting and export ban in 2025 to allow nuts to mature and protect quality.
Macadamia shipments to China were valued at Sh1.15 billion in 2024, making the restrictions another challenge for a market that has traditionally absorbed Kenya’s agricultural and mineral exports.
The changing commodity mix coincides with a major trade initiative intended to improve Kenyan exporters’ access to China through preferential tariff treatment.
On March 24, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and China’s Vice President Han Zheng flagged off 54 containers of Kenyan products at the Syokimau Standard Gauge Railway terminus for shipment through the Port of Mombasa.
The consignment included avocados, avocado oil, coffee, hides and skins, among other products, under the Kenya-China Early Harvest Agreement and broader zero-tariff framework.
Investments, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui described the initiative as transformative for Kenya’s export ambitions.
“This is more than a policy shift; it is a game changer that opens the door to one of the world’s largest consumer markets and positions Kenya for a new era of trade growth and value addition,” Mr Kinyanjui said.
