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President William Ruto at the Bomet Affordable Housing Project Estate Phase One in Bomet East Constituency on September 9, 2026. [PCS]
More than half of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, according to a new TIFA Research survey.
The poll, released Wednesday, September 9, found 52 per cent of respondents oppose the BBG, compared to 30 per cent who support it.
Another 15 per cent said they had no opinion, while 4 per cent said they were unaware of the de facto coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
“Among all Kenyans, nearly twice as many express opposition to the BBG as compared to those who say they support it,” TIFA said in the report, noting the remainder either had no opinion or were unaware of the arrangement.
The findings are drawn from TIFA’s first national survey of 2026, conducted June 13–22 among 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties, with a margin of error of ±2.18 per cent.
TIFA said support for the BBG has held “just below one-third” across its last five surveys, aside from two outliers: a low of 22 per cent in May 2025 and a high of 44 per cent in August 2025.
The current 30 per cent support figure matches what TIFA recorded in May 2026, which the pollster said suggests “a fairly stable ceiling” on how much backing the arrangement can attract, a pattern it linked to the widening split within ODM over whether to back Ruto’s re-election bid.
The survey also found opinion on the BBG closely tracks broader political sentiment. Among BBG supporters, 30 per cent believe Kenya is headed in the right direction, versus just 5 per cent of opponents.
Trust in President Ruto shows a similar divide: 22 per cent of BBG supporters say they have “a lot” of trust in him, compared to 6 per cent of opponents, though notably, 19 per cent of BBG supporters themselves say they have no trust in the president at all.
