The Federal Government has partly blamed the underperformance of its budgets on conflicting macroeconomic projections by agencies responsible for fiscal and monetary policy, prompting the Economic Management Team to establish a committee to harmonise key assumptions used for budgeting and economic planning.

The government said differences in projections for crude oil prices and production, exchange rates, inflation and non-oil revenues had created inconsistencies in budget planning and contributed to actual fiscal outcomes falling short of expectations.

This was disclosed in a statement issued on Monday by the Secretariat of the Economic Management Team at the Federal Ministry of Finance following a meeting of the team in Abuja.

The EMT, which serves as the Federal Government’s principal platform for economic management and coordination, approved the establishment of an inter-agency committee to develop a common set of macroeconomic assumptions for fiscal and monetary authorities.

According to the statement, the decision followed findings from a joint budget retreat and technical validation workshop, which identified differences in projections among government institutions as one of the factors behind budget underperformance.

“The decision follows a joint budget retreat and a technical validation workshop that traced budget under-performance in part to inconsistent assumptions used by different agencies, and to occasional divergence between key projections by various authorities responsible for economic policies,” the statement said.

The development suggests that different arms of government have sometimes based fiscal and economic decisions on varying expectations about variables that determine revenue, expenditure and financing needs.

The new committee will harmonise assumptions covering crude oil prices, production volumes, the exchange rate, inflation and non-oil revenue projections.

It will also address inconsistencies in the way major economic indicators are reported across government and communicated to investors, development partners and the public.

Commenting on the decision, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy said harmonising the assumptions should reduce discrepancies between budget expectations and actual economic outcomes.

“Today’s decisions tighten the link between the numbers we plan with and the actual outturns. A single, harmonised set of assumptions across the fiscal and monetary authorities means fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians,” the minister said.

The EMT also revised its terms of reference, expanding its responsibilities to include regular reviews of macroeconomic performance, stronger fiscal and monetary policy coordination, monitoring of the Renewed Hope Agenda and periodic assessment of the Federal Government’s financing requirements.

Under the new arrangement, the team will meet monthly, with at least two strategic sectors scheduled for review at each meeting.

The Ministry of Finance was also designated as the coordinating custodian for national economic data, while individual government agencies will remain responsible for their respective datasets and provide inputs into coordinated public releases.

The government said the measure was intended to improve the reliability and consistency of official economic statistics.

Meanwhile, the EMT reviewed recent economic indicators, noting that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, which it described as the strongest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2024.

The team said the economy recorded about 17 per cent growth in US dollar terms in the first half of 2026.

It also said Nigeria’s external reserves had risen above $54bn in early September, their highest level in nearly 18 years and above the government’s projections for 2026.

The naira, according to the statement, strengthened into the N1,300 range against the dollar in early September, reaching its firmest level in about two years amid the increase in external reserves.

The EMT also noted the decision by FTSE Russell to reclassify Nigeria from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status from September 21, 2026, marking the country’s return to the index after about three years.

The government expects the reclassification to improve the visibility of Nigerian equities among international investors.

The team was further briefed that Nigeria’s public debt remained below 40 per cent of GDP, while Moody’s sovereign credit outlook for the country had moved from stable to positive.

It noted that the Nigerian economy was valued at more than $2.2tn when measured on a purchasing power parity basis, significantly above its nominal dollar GDP.

According to the EMT, the difference reflects the potential for the country to move towards the government’s target of a $1tn nominal economy by 2030.

As part of efforts to achieve the target, the team reviewed proposals to increase agriculture’s contribution to economic growth.

The strategy includes reducing post-harvest losses, expanding agricultural processing and mechanisation, strengthening compliance with export standards and ensuring that capital allocations are released ahead of planting seasons.

Financing proposals considered by the team include the planned recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture and the establishment of a new credit window for smallholder farmers.

The government is also targeting an increase in agriculture’s share of private-sector credit to about 10 per cent by 2030.

On trade and investment, the EMT assessed Nigeria’s preparations to host the Creative Africa Nexus in November 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair in November 2027 in Lagos.

The government said both events were expected to attract large numbers of exhibitors and international buyers, while the IATF is also expected to draw African heads of state.

Organisers expect the events to generate substantial trade and investment deals.

The Ministry of Finance was consequently directed to coordinate funding and customs facilitation for the events in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment.

Both ministries are expected to develop a consolidated implementation plan assigning specific responsibilities to relevant ministers.