Kenya’s current milk shortage is a reminder of a problem the dairy sector has faced for years: we have not yet learned how to effectively manage the seasonal nature of milk production. Formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July 2026 as dry and cold conditions reduced pasture and fodder availability.

Yet Kenya periodically faces the opposite problem. During good rains and abundant fodder, milk production can exceed what processors and the market can immediately absorb. The sector has long experienced a cycle of oversupply during wet seasons and undersupply during dry seasons.

The question should not simply be how we increase milk production. It should be how we manage milk production throughout the year.

Kenya needs greater investment in milk powder and other shelf-stable dairy products during peak production periods.

Instead of allowing surplus milk to depress farm-gate prices or go to waste, processors should have enough capacity to convert excess fresh milk into powder. This creates a strategic reserve that can be reconstituted when production falls.

We also need stronger cold-chain infrastructure and milk aggregation systems. Investment in cooling centres, efficient collection networks, storage and transport can reduce post-harvest losses and enable processors to collect more milk during high-production periods.

Farmers, meanwhile, need stronger incentives to invest in fodder conservation. Silage, hay and other preserved feeds should become a routine part of dairy farming rather than an emergency response to drought. Extension services should place greater emphasis on fodder budgeting, water harvesting and climate-smart dairy production.

There is also a cultural issue to confront: the perception of milk powder. Many consumers automatically consider fresh milk superior, while powdered milk is viewed as a second-class alternative. Properly processed milk powder is a safe, convenient and valuable dairy product that helps ensure year-round milk availability.

The current shortage should be treated not merely as a crisis, but as a lesson in food-system resilience. When milk production rises again, Kenya should use that abundance to prepare for the next dry season. When farmers have too much milk, Kenya should save it; when they have too little, Kenya should have a reserve to fall back on.