Kenya’s shortage of quality jobs could push up to 2.4 million more people below the poverty line this year, with the World Bank warning that rising fuel prices and widespread informal employment are squeezing household incomes.

The lender estimates that the country’s poverty rate could rise by between two and 4.5 percentage points in 2026, depending on how much higher fuel prices are passed on to consumers. That would leave an additional one million to 2.4 million Kenyans unable to afford basic daily needs, unable to even spend at least Sh387 ($3) a day. Urban households are expected to be hit the hardest because they rely more on commercial transport and energy.