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Leaders aligned to the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) “Linda Ground” wing, are using the Deputy President slot to negotiate political survival and influence within President William Ruto’s broad-based government.

Political analysts say the push for the position is less about the office itself and more about securing political space ahead of the next election cycle.

Advocate Joshua Kiptoo argues that the ongoing debate around the DP seat within ODM circles is largely a negotiating tactic aimed at influencing zoning arrangements for elective seats in key regions.

“It is more personal than it is about the Presidency. I strongly feel that their push for the DP seat is posturing, but the main card they are holding is zoning. The main push is zoning rather than the DP slot,” Kiptoo said.

Speaking on Spice FM, Kiptoo said ODM leaders are seeking guarantees that the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) will not field candidates in traditional ODM strongholds such as Luo Nyanza, thereby protecting incumbent leaders and those seeking re-election.

“The push is a negotiating tactic that UDA could concede to in Luo Nyanza. People like PS Raymond Omollo and Evans Kidero are returning to battle for seats currently held by others who also want to retain their positions,” he explained.

He further said this reflects a broader reality in Kenyan politics where coalition-building and negotiations have become central to electoral success since the end of the one-party era.

“This is the season where politicians have to bring their A-game. Our politics has cascaded into coalition-type politics. Since 2002, no candidate whether in government or opposition can realistically go it alone,” Kiptoo said.

He noted that for President Ruto, the DP position remains a critical political asset as he prepares his strategy for his 2027 re-election bid.

Ruto must carefully balance competing regional interests while maintaining support from key voting blocs that propelled him to power in 2022.

Central Kenya, which contributed nearly 43 per cent of his vote, remains particularly sensitive after the dramatic fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Kiptoo warns that removing the deputy presidency from the Mt Kenya region could create political ammunition for Gachagua, who has positioned himself as a defender of the region’s interests.

“If you completely take out the deputy presidency from Mt Kenya, you give Gachagua ammunition,” Kiptoo said. “He will say this is exactly what he warned the region about after delivering a majority of votes to the government.”

As a result, Ruto faces a delicate balancing act between maintaining support in Mt Kenya and accommodating potential partners from other regions, including ODM.

“The president is between a rock and a hard surface. He must balance the interests of Mount Kenya East and West while also sustaining the broad-based government,” Kiptoo said.

The deputy presidency itself remains a powerful office with significant influence in governance and resource allocation.

The DP chairs the Intergovernmental Budget and Economic Council, which plays a central role in determining how revenue is shared between national and county governments.

“The office of DP has its own budget and critical roles that we sometimes ignore. It is a powerful position in determining fiscal relations between the national and county governments,” Kiptoo said.

Historically, the choice of a running mate has often been driven by electoral calculations. In 2022, Ruto selected Gachagua largely to counter Azimio’s decision to nominate Martha Karua from the Mt Kenya region.

However, the relationship later deteriorated, culminating in Gachagua’s dramatic removal from office, a development that has reshaped the country’s political dynamics. Kiptoo notes that the lessons from that fallout are shaping future calculations.

“The next deputy president will not just be picked for numbers,” he said. “Compatibility with the president will be a key factor.”

With ODM factions struggling to maintain cohesion following Raila Odinga’s death, the party’s leaders now face the challenge of preserving influence across regions such as Nyanza, Western, and the Coast.

“The biggest task for ODM leaders now is to maintain some semblance of the ODM family. They must try to field a united political front,” Kiptoo said.