The widening war between Iran and the US and Israel alliance is beginning to being felt far and wide, with many keeping a close eye on fuel prices.

And in Kenya as the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority prepares to announce new fuel prices, former Investment, Trade and Industry Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has said there is “no way on earth there will be a major spike in the price of fuel in this week’s review.”

In a post on X, Moses Kuria said the nature of Kenya’s domestic supply chain and the G to G deal means any effects from the war will not be felt immediately.

In this era where everyone is an expert at everything it’s tempting to doubt your own knowledge when the uninformed pose as Profrssors. I understand the oil industry very well having worked in the industry since 1994 and as a banker to the oil producers later. There is no way on…

— Hon.Moses Kuria,HSC (@HonMoses_Kuria) March 12, 2026

Kuria’s sentiments seem to align with Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi’s who sought to calm public fears, saying Kenya still has adequate fuel reserves for the coming weeks.

“We have scheduled imports for delivery up to the end of April 2026,” he said. “As it stands, we are assured of security of supply.”

Still, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi warned lawmakers that the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the economic shock could become, cautioning that prolonged disruptions to global energy and trade routes could have “massive” consequences for Kenya’s economy.

Trade between Kenya and the Gulf region has expanded rapidly in recent years, turning the Gulf into one of the country’s most important export destinations. Kenyan goods ranging from meat and fresh vegetables to tea, coffee and flowers have flowed steadily into Middle Eastern markets. Last year alone, exports to the region reached approximately Sh164.6 billion.

But the conflict now threatens to disrupt that momentum. According to Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui, aviation and maritime disruptions caused by escalating tensions could significantly affect those export routes.

“While we hope for a speedy return to normalcy, the reality of geopolitics remains unpredictable,” Kinyanjui said in a statement, adding that the government has begun exploring alternative markets to cushion Kenyan exporters should the crisis persist.

Agriculture officials say the impact is already beginning to show in some sectors. Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said Kenya exports roughly Sh300 million worth of meat and animal products to the Middle East every week a trade now facing uncertainty.

“There are some products that have already begun to be impacted,” Kagwe said. “For example, we send to the Middle East about Sh300 million worth of meat and animal products every week, especially food products that we have been selling to Iran, which have obviously been affected.”

Kagwe added that Dubai plays a strategic role in Kenya’s tea trade across the region. “As we already know, we have our distribution for tea around Dubai it is where we mix our teas for the Middle East countries,” he said, noting that the government is already seeking alternative markets that could absorb products affected by the conflict. “When it comes to the meat market, we believe we would be able to cater for other markets and replace those currently in conflict.”

Meanwhile, global energy markets have reacted sharply to the crisis. Oil prices surged after Iran threatened shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.