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El Niño won’t just flood roads, it could switch off your business

Africa News News African October 22, 2026 · Comments off

Three in four small businesses in Kenya rely on mobile money to receive customer payments, according to FSD Kenya’s 2023 FinAccess MSE Tracker Survey. What happens when floods knock out the towers, fibre cables and power lines that keep these transactions running?

With the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasting above-average rainfall across more than 80 percent of the country during the October-to-December 2026 short rains, the risk is real. In risk management, forecasts are early warnings that demand action, not observation. Yet many business continuity plans fail to adequately address prolonged telecommunications outages.

The effects can be devastating. In 2024, faults affecting the SEACOM and EASSy undersea cable systems disrupted internet connectivity across several East African countries, slowing services, interrupting communication and affecting businesses reliant on online banking, mobile payments, cloud systems and digital platforms.

Although the outage was not weather-related, it highlighted organisations’ dependence on reliable connectivity.

Flooding during El Niño rains increases the risk of power outages and damage to terrestrial fibre routes. Flooded roads, power interruptions and weak connectivity can combine to disrupt production, communication, customer service and entire supply chains.

A few years ago, while driving from Nakuru to Nairobi, I encountered flash floods that forced motorists into a slow-moving queue stretching nearly 20 kilometres along flooded roads. The frightening experience showed how quickly extreme weather can disrupt daily life and economic activity.

Many business continuity plans underestimate external dependencies, assuming contingency arrangements will work during a crisis. Businesses often prioritise data backups, insurance, remote work and fire evacuation. While these measures protect information, cover certain losses, enable remote working and support safe evacuation, they may not address wider infrastructure failures.

Plans must also account for risks beyond an organisation’s control. Businesses should assess how flooding and infrastructure damage could affect operations, model different disruption scenarios and conduct risk assessments tailored to the forecast El Niño conditions.

They should map critical processes and infrastructure dependencies and review their business continuity and crisis management plans accordingly.

Our work supporting organisations in enterprise risk management and business continuity has taught us one consistent lesson: disruptions rarely follow the neat sequence outlined in a plan. Businesses must test preparedness across their entire operations and act now, before it is too late.

The writer is a governance and risk management expert. [email protected]

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