The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB), in a statement issued on September 1, 2026, sought to calm nerves, saying the country is experiencing temporary supply constraints instead of a complete milk shortage.

The regulator attributed the situation to seasonal dry and cold weather in key milk-producing areas, which has reduced pasture and fodder available to dairy cattle.

According to the government, formal milk deliveries to processors declined by 3.7 percent, from 84.4 million litres in June to 81.3 million litres in July 2026. Preliminary data also points to a further decline in deliveries in August as the dry and cold conditions persisted.

The impact has been more pronounced on pasteurized fresh milk than long-life varieties, resulting in low stocks and rationing in some supermarkets. KDB said the situation is expected to improve once the October rains begin.

Mr Kagwe, however, in an exclusive interview with the Nation warned that the situation could worsen if the drought persists, saying Kenya’s position as Africa’s leading producer of processed milk does not make it immune to weather shocks.

“Kenya is the highest-producing country of processed milk in Africa. But that does not mean Kenya cannot get affected by drought,” Mr Kagwe said. Kenya produces about 5.5 billion litres of milk annually, according to the CS, making dairy one of the country’s most significant agricultural sub-sectors.

“It is true that milk production is under stress because of the most recent drought,” Mr Kagwe said. He noted that the situation varies across the country, with some areas experiencing significant challenges while others remain relatively moderate.

The CS said the government could be forced to consider milk imports if the drought continues to suppress local production.

“We could end up importing milk if this drought continues and the situation persists,” he said. However, before making such a decision, Kenya would have to assess milk availability in neighbouring Uganda and Tanzania, he added.

The KDB statement provided some context to the shortages, indicating that the problem is primarily one of reduced deliveries to processors rather than a nationwide depletion of milk.

Fresh milk has been particularly affected because of its shorter shelf life and dependence on regular daily supplies from farmers. Reduced deliveries have consequently translated into lower stocks in some retail outlets.

The dairy sector has made significant gains in recent years. National milk production reached about 5.5 billion litres, supported by growth in the number of dairy farmers, improved genetics, better feeding practices and increased investment in processing.

However, the sector remains highly dependent on weather conditions, particularly in areas where farmers rely on natural pasture and locally available fodder. Kiambu, Meru, Nyeri, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu and Nandi, are the leading milk producing counties in Kenya.

For smallholder farmers, higher feed costs make dairy production uneconomical. The current supply pressure could ease with the onset of the October rains.

Mr Kagwe told the Nation that the anticipated El Niño rains could provide relief to livestock farmers because of improved pasture growth, although excessive rainfall could also create new challenges. He cautioned that excessive rainfall could flood agricultural areas and disrupt production, making the expected weather a mixed bag for farmers.

The government and the dairy industry, he said will therefore be watching the weather closely as the country approaches the October-November-December rainfall season.

At a separate press conference in Nairobi, the Principal Secretary for Livestock Jonathan Mueke announced a raft of mitigation measures to stabilise the current milk shortage of the product across the country.

He said that the impact of the short-term solutions in place might take about three months to be felt. He spoke on Thursday after meeting several stakeholders and producers to address the matter, noting that Kenya was not the only country affected by the situation.

According to the PS, the drop in animal feed affected dairy farmers, reducing the milk supply to producers and resulting in a minimum amount of final product for consumers despite high demand.

Among the measures that the government will prioritise in mitigating the shortage includes supporting farmers to ensure that they access animal feeds including fodder.

“We are going to speak with all the animal feed manufacturers so that we can map out all the areas around the country where we have storage of animal feeds so that we can avail to our dairy farmers.”

The PS revealed that two high-level meetings chaired by President William Ruto and his deputy had addressed the potential negative impact of El Niño on dairy products.

The meetings resulted in an agreement to import yellow maize to supplement dwindling feed supplies.

The chairperson of the Kenya Dairy Processors Association Kennedy Gitonga urged Kenyans to be patient and refrain from panic buying, emphasising that the shortage was minimal.

“People think that we have a big shortage and that we will not have milk tomorrow. Shortage is not big at all. No need for alarm and no need of panic buying,” Mr Gitonga said.

The chairperson of the KDB Genesio Mugo warned of possible adulteration of milk, urging consumers to ensure they buy brands approved by the regulator.

“The board officers have been directed to ensure that any milk that is being sold and hawked, especially in Nairobi and other populated areas, all those milk products that have not gone through requisite framework are dealt with according to the law,” Mr Mugo said.

In the North Rift region, milk processors are running below capacity and counting losses running into millions of shillings.

Milk deliveries to some cooling and processing plants have drastically fallen by almost half, with farmers struggling to maintain production amid shortages of fodder, rising feed prices and disease outbreaks.

The squeeze is now being felt beyond the farm gate, with private processors warning of further price increases as they grapple with dwindling supplies.

Dairy farmers affiliated to the Kenya Dairy Farmer Federation (KDFF) said yesterday that milk production had drastically declined because of inadequate quality feeds.

“We no longer receive steady supply of the produce from farmers which has affected our operations,” said Stanley Ngombe, KDFF chairperson and chairman of Lelcheggo Cooperative Dairies in Nandi County.

At the cooperative’s milk cooling plant, daily deliveries have fallen to less than 2,000 litres from about 10,000 litres.

“The low milk supply works against the economies of scale, considering that we still have to chill the low quality of milk supplied, meet high electricity cost and pay workers,” Mr Ngombe said.

He added that dairy animals were also increasingly vulnerable to diseases during the dry spell, further affecting milk production.

“We have renegotiated with our creditors on how to repay our loans or risk having our assets auctioned in an event that we default,” Mr Ngombe said.

The shortage has also pushed up retail prices, with a 500ml packet of milk now selling for between Sh53 and Sh60 in parts of the North Rift.

New KCC is selling a 500ml packet at Sh53, up from Sh50, while Brookside is selling at Sh60, up from Sh52.

Traders in the region said the price of animal feed had risen from Sh1,800 to Sh2,400. The prices of hay have also more than doubled, with a bale that previously sold for Sh100 now going for Sh250.

Farmers said it costs about Sh22 to produce a litre of milk, excluding other expenses, and called for better prices to make dairy farming a more profitable investment.

But some farmers who prepared for the dry spell have managed to maintain steady production.

Willy Kosgei, a dairy farmer from Chepkanga, Uasin Gishu County, said he set aside part of his maize crop last season to make silage.
“I set aside part of the maize crop last season to produce enough silage to cushion my dairy animals from any shortage of feeds,” he said.

In Uasin Gishu County, dairy farmers earned about Sh3 billion from more than 186 million litres of milk last season. The gains followed support through the Ministry’s Smallholder Dairy Commercialisation Programme (SDCP).

The programme also supported farmers’ groups to establish milk cooling plants, helping reduce post-harvest losses caused by contamination resulting from poor storage facilities.

However, farmers say high breeding costs undermine efforts to improve dairy breeds and increase production.

“The exorbitant cost of AI services has forced most farmers to resort to use of bulls to breed their animals which compromises on quality,” said James Tuwei, a farmer from Nandi County.

The North Rift has an estimated 1.2 million dairy cows and between 400,000 and 500,000 heifers.

The current shortage also highlights the wider gap between Kenya’s milk production and its potential. According to a Ministry of Agriculture report, the country produced an average of 4.2 billion litres of milk last year against a potential output of 12 billion litres.

The ministry attributed the shortfall to poor animal husbandry practices among most farmers.

Reporting by Sammy Waweru, Kevin Cheruiyot And Barnabas Bii