“Economic policies should be assessed based on their impact on the welfare of citizens. Any economic policy that does not improve on the welfare of the people is inherently ineffective.” Emir of Kano, Alhaji Muhammadu Sanusi II, July 16, 2026.
Tinubunomics, based on HRH Sanusi’s measure of economic policy effectiveness, has, so far, been a resounding failure – despite the attempt by the Federal Government’s propaganda machine to portray the dubious RENEWED HOPE agenda as a success.
I agree with the Emir absolutely. Granted, the FG has made some progress since 2023; but, overall, the impact on the lives of majority of Nigerians – mine included — has been undeniably devastating. The President and all his well-paid spokesmen cannot convince me that my family and I are better off today than in May 29, 2023 – when my bank account tells a different story.
The government’s falsehood, and that will be addressed shortly, fails because, even its spokesmen, from Ministers to the battalion of Special Advisers, all have hundreds of their own families who are caught in the increasing poverty trap which Tinubunomics has unleashed on 99 per cent of Nigerians. The World Bank was actually being polite and generous by using the word “threatens” to describe an existential reality. Acute poverty already defines the lives of more than 90 per cent of Nigerians everywhere. The combination of rapidly increasing prices and declining discretionary income has forced millions of Nigerians to adopt eating, sleeping, drinking, traveling, health methods that virtually all would have considered unimaginable in 2015 – when the Tinubu era began.
GOVT OF THE FEW BY THE FEW FOR THE FEW
“It is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong.” Jeremy Bentham, 1748-1832.
That was the way Bentham conceived of a government elected by the citizens of any country. It will be extremely difficult for any right thinking government official, simply because they have been invited to “come and eat”, to dispute that assertion as a basis for assessing Tinubunomics. Certainly, none of them can argue that the greatest number of Nigerians are already living well below the poverty line; and now, the World Bank is predicting a worse scenario – despite the desperate attempt to deceive suffering Nigerians that all is well. It won’t work because “Love and business and family and religion and art and patriotism are nothing but shadows of words; when a man [or woman or child] is starving.” O Henry, 1862-1910. Far more millions of Nigerians are now starving than can possibly be rescued by “donations” of N50,000 to start akara or kulikuli business. Something more fundamental is required. But, before we address the latest attempt by the FG to eradicate multi-faceted poverty there is a need to ask a question which even most of our economists and activists have avoided because they already know the answer.
Who are the real beneficiaries of Tunubu’s reforms? Certainly, they are not the masses who voted him into office. Two frequent international reports published several times every year show the names of the world’s richest people and how their estimated wealth have increased or been reduced. The top ten Nigerians, names withheld, have on the average increased their average wealth, in dollars, by 80 per cent since Tinubu’s reforms started. Obviously, the reforms have primarily benefited the wealthy people at the expense of the masses of the people. Two examples would illustrate the point. Before Tinubu and the opening of the largest single chain refinery in Nigeria, petrol price never reached N600 per litre. Today, after reform and the refinery, the price averages N1,200 per litre – without any increase in workers pay. Nobody needs a doctorate degree in Economics to know who is gaining and who is losing.
“FG borrows N5tn from bond market in six months.” July 13, 2026
To begin with, the interest on the funds borrowed, would accrue to those with billions to invest – the same one per cent; the funds will be spent or stolen without adequate records. Capital plus interest will be repaid by all Nigerians; especially the 99 per cent who might not benefit from the deal in any way.
FG’S ANSWER – VAGUE, UNTRUTHFUL AND BADLY CONCEIVED
“Tinubu unveils $3bn social protection, human capital programmes.” VANGUARD, JULY 17, 2026
One leading newspaper reported that Tinubu “launched the Nigeria Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Additional Financing programme, the Solutions for Internally Displaced and Home Communities programme and the Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity programme at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.”
Tinubu missed what could have been the defining moment of his three years and six weeks in office by turning the announcement of the monumental and transformative social and economic programme over to a Minister.
This was his opportunity to, at least temporarily, silence his political opponents, social media hounds barking at him, as well as independent critics like me. Setting out to lift tens of millions out of poverty, given the current situation and projections, is a daunting task. But, it is not impossible.
The first step is for the President to be seen leading from the front – not appointing a surrogate leader. At a time like this, people want to listen to a firm and reassuring voice; not an echo, which diminishes the impact of the message. The impression has been inadvertently created that the President does not really believe in the programme.
The second, and critical step, is to brand the idea in a simple and easily recalled name. Two examples from abroad will help illustrate the point here. US President, Lyndon Johnson, 1908-1973 called a similar effort as The Great Society programme. Chinese, Chairman Mao, 1893-1976, set the economic revolution in motion by calling for The Great Leap Forward. Two examples from Nigeria would also help. President Obasanjo introduced the Poverty Alleviation Programme, PAP; and Jonathan launched SURE-P. The Malaysian economic revolution might not have attracted global attention, if it was not wrapped around VISION 2020. You can easily wrap your mind around those. The stuff rolled out by Tinubu would leave people yawning. It has no sound bite; nothing to fit into headlines in newspapers. It was obviously the brain child of brainless civil servants and incompetent Special Advisers.
And the lies! The lies!! Read this. “He said the numbers tell a story of recovery, stressing that real GDP grew by 11.2 per cent and there was nearly 10 per cent per capita income growth in USD terms last year.” (VANGUARD Report, July 17, 2026. Whoever said that must have more imagination than facts. To begin with, all GDP figures, not just Nigeria’s, are quoted in USD. Furthermore, the World Bank, IMF, as well as other global organizations, agreed that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.2 per cent in 2025. In June this year, the FG was congratulating itself that the economy grew at 4.2 per cent. What has changed in a month that the rest of the world is unaware of? Nigerian politics.
Since all is fair in war; and politics is war without shooting, anything goes – including forging figures to gain undeserved applause from
duped. It was also claimed that “we have already reached 15 million vulnerable households, lifting an estimated 7.5 million people out of poverty.” Another false claim. Nobody in Lagos Island has been lifted out of poverty. I challenge the FG to provide the names and addresses of the people.
Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola
