Hungary has a population of less than 10 million and an economy that produces a modest 1.1% of the European Union’s GDP. But on Sunday it will hold the most important election in Europe this year. After 16 years as prime minister, during which he has dismantled the checks and balances customary in a democracy, Viktor Orbán faces the most serious threat to his power in that time. Polls consistently place the centre‑right party led by his main challenger, Péter Magyar, ahead by a substantial margin.
Mr Orbán was once described by Donald Trump’s former adviser Steve Bannon as “Trump before Trump”. In his political hour of need, luminaries of the global far right have duly turned up en masse to support him. Last month, Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini and Geert Wilders made the pilgrimage to Budapest. This week, the US vice-president, JD Vance, paid a tub‑thumping election-eve visit, as his boss issued apocalyptic threats to have Iran “taken out in one night”. Risibly, given the explicit purpose of his trip, Mr Vance spent much of it inveighing against alleged EU interference in the forthcoming vote.
Given the unpopularity of the disastrous and illegal US-Israel war in the Middle East, Mr Vance’s presence on the stump may prove a mixed blessing for his host. But the gesture reflects both Mr Orbán’s status as the forerunner of Maga-style Christian nationalism and US appreciation of Hungary’s role as a Eurosceptic thorn in the side of Brussels. The White House’s national security strategy actively seeks to promote forces dedicated to disrupting the despised EU; Mr Orbán is the disrupter-in-chief. Extraordinary recent revelations have also exposed the enthusiasm with which Budapest has done the bidding of the Kremlin in its attempts to undermine European support for Ukraine’s resistance to Vladimir Putin.
The overlap of interest between Mr Trump’s Washington and Mr Putin’s Moscow starkly underlines the stakes of this election for Brussels. Contrary to Mr Vance’s baseless assertions, EU leaders have been careful to stay on the sidelines despite a disgraceful campaign by Mr Orbán’s Fidesz party, which has demonised Volodymyr Zelenskyy and portrayed Ukraine as a threat to Hungary’s national interests. But a fifth term for Mr Orbán would force a reckoning with a leader who has used and abused vast amounts of the EU’s cash while mocking its values and acting as Mr Putin’s Trojan horse.
As the geopolitics play out, for Hungarian citizens the focus is of course primarily domestic. As well as vigorously harassing minority groups, Mr Orban’s self-styled “illiberal democracy” has funnelled power, influence and wealth towards a trusted coterie of allies who exert a suffocating stranglehold over the state, civil society and economy. Mr Magyar, a former Fidesz member and moderate conservative, has forged ahead in the polls by campaigning on government-related corruption and the steady erosion of democratic norms.
One election will not be able to overturn a system that is designed to entrench the long-term power of Fidesz in key institutions. Nor would a new government led by Mr Magyar be a particularly liberal one. But an end to the long iniquity of Mr Orbán’s reign could conceivably be a bellwether event for the global far right, ahead of challenging midterm elections for Mr Trump. As Mr Vance’s 11th-hour visit to Budapest this week testified, the significance of Sunday’s vote will resonate far beyond Hungary’s borders.
